Pemex faces debt maturities of $8.9 billion in 2025, while S&P warns about its high leverage and risks due to refining performance and oil prices.

Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) will face strong financial pressures in 2025, with debt maturities estimated at 8.9 billion dollars, according to Standard and Poor's (S&P).

The rating agency also projects obligations for 12.7 billion dollars by 2026, reflecting a high leverage in its capital structure and critical liquidity needs.

S&P warns that risks to Pemex could intensify if oil prices decline, if it fails to maintain daily production of 1.8 million barrels, or if the National Refining System continues to underperform expectations.

Despite these challenges, the rating agency considers that both Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) maintain a neutral outlook on their credit ratings due to their integral link to the Mexican government. Both companies are fundamental to the country's economic and social objectives, which ensures their strategic relevance and state intervention in their key decisions.

S&P highlighted that Pemex and CFE's ratings are aligned with that of the Mexican sovereign, indicating that any change in the country's credit rating would directly impact these entities. In the case of CFE, it projects an EBITDA margin of 30% to 35% in the next 12 to 24 months, with a debt/EBITDA ratio above 5.5x.

The report stresses that the government will continue to support Pemex financially, but the prioritization of social objectives over corporate profits could limit its ability to improve in the short term.