Report
Republic of Colombia
Colombia


Colombia Crime and Security Risk Report


Colombia Crime and Security Risk Report

Crime And Security Risk

Crime And Security Risk Key View

  • 25 Nov 2020
  • Colombia
  • Crime and Security Risk
Businesses face a relatively high security risk when operating in Colombia and will need to incur significant costs to ensure the safety of their physical and human capital. Criminal networks, which are continually evolving and splintering into smaller profit-driven gangs, are involved in numerous illicit activities and trades that disrupt business processes and elevate the risks for financial losses. Even though the Colombian police force is one of the best equipped and trained in the region, concerns about corruption and its ability to maintain security in all areas of the country undermine its full capability. The financial system remains vulnerable to money laundering and cybercrime, although the government is taking measures to curb these risks by tightening financial regulations. Although the security situation has somewhat improved owing to the government's efforts at peace negotiations with larger insurgent groups, considerable security risks remain for businesses.
Key View: Businesses face a relatively high security risk when operating in Colombia and will need to incur significant costs to ensure the safety of their physical and human capital. Criminal networks, which are continually evolving and splintering into smaller, profit-driven gangs, are involved in numerous illicit activities and trades that disrupt business processes and elevate the risks for financial losses. Even though the Colombian police force is one of the best equipped and trained in the region, concerns about corruption and its ability to maintain security in all areas of the country undermine its full capability. The financial system remains vulnerable to money laundering and cybercrime, although the government is taking measures to curb these risks by tightening financial regulations. Although the security situation has somewhat improved owing to the government's efforts at peace negotiations with larger insurgent groups, considerable security risks remain for businesses. Colombia therefore receives a moderate score of 41.1 out of 100 in our Crime and Security Risk Index, placing eighth out of 20 Central and South American countries, between Guyana and Bolivia.

Elevated Crime Risks Aggravating Operating Environment

Colombia & Regional Average - Crime & Security Risk

Note: 100 = Lowest risk; 0 = highest risk. Source: Fitch Solutions Crime and Security Risk Index

Vulnerability To Crime (21.8/100): For decades insurgent groups have propagated high crime rates, cultivating a high-risk environment for investors and businesses in Colombia. A transition from large ideologically driven groups to smaller profit-driven gangs has merged in recent years. This has led to an increase in street crime and burglary in urban areas, while the agricultural and extractive sector businesses that are based in rural areas are vulnerable to kidnapping and violent attacks, which raises security costs. Although the police force has the necessary equipment and manpower is well integrated with other security services, and has improved the response to criminal activity, its effectiveness is stifled from the constantly changing tactics of new criminal gangs and splinter groups. Concerns about corruption also undermine confidence in the police force's effectiveness to enforce the law, investigate and prevent crime at all times.

Conflict Risk (32.8/100): After more than half a century of civil war and the prevalence of drug trafficking networks, Colombia has made huge strides in improving its security situation in recent years. While this marked a positive step for the country's security environment, gains are being realised at a slow pace. Colombia remains beset by guerrilla rebels and criminal networks from demobilised rebel organisations involved in a wide range of violent activities, such as kidnappings and bombings of critical infrastructure, which pose a significant threat to business operations in the country. These groups seek to fill the gap, including controlling the network of drug trafficking left behind by the FARC, posing a serious danger to land-based transport networks. Armed groups including the ELN, are using the Covid-19 pandemic to expand their control in the country, which adds additional risks to the pandemic beyond economic and health dangers. In addition, volatile diplomatic relations with Venezuela can cause disruptions to business operations, particularly when it comes to border regulations and migration. Nevertheless, the risk of interstate conflict is lowered by the fact that Colombia is a major US ally in the region, which strengthens its security forces against external aggressors.

Business Crime (68.7/100): Business crime risks remain moderate in Colombia owing to the government tightening financial regulation and elevating report standards to international norms. Colombia also boasts one of the highest corporate governance standards globally, adhering to high levels of corporate social responsibility. However, businesses still need to be aware that Colombia's financial system can be exploited by criminal gangs, where investors could face risks associated with organised crime and illegal activities, including the risk of incurring financial losses from fraud and money laundering.

Colombia - Crime And Security Risk
Conflict RiskVulnerability To CrimeBusiness CrimeCrime And Security Risk
Colombia score32.821.868.741.1
Central and South America average46.541.450.142.3
Central and South America position (out of 20)191338
Latin America average53.630.250.848.6
Latin America position (out of 42)4134328
Global average48.949.849.149.3
Global position (out of 201)16117547130
Note: 100 = Lowest risk; 0 = highest risk. Source: Fitch Solutions Crime And Security Risk Index

Our Operational Risk Index quantitatively compares the challenges of operating in 201 countries worldwide. The index scores each country on a scale of 0-100, with 100 being the lowest risk state. The entire index consists of 24 sub-index scores and 84 individual surveys and datasets, which all contribute to the headline score. A full methodology can be found at the end of the report.

Crime And Security Risk SWOT

  • 25 Nov 2020
  • Colombia
  • Crime and Security Risk
The safety of foreign workers and businesses in Colombia has improved significantly over the past few years as government forces have established greater stability and a negotiated peace solution with FARC has been agreed on. However, security risks are emerging around the activities of smaller criminal groups.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
  • Colombia's security risk profile has been improving significantly over the past 10 years.
  • Colombia has robust armed forces by regional standards, with experience honed by operations against insurgents.
  • Colombia's homicide rate has seen a considerable reduction over the last decade.
Weaknesses
  • Colombia has suffered an internal armed conflict since the 1960s involving left-wing guerrillas and right-wing paramilitaries.
  • Colombia has a large presence of organised criminal groups, and extortion and kidnapping are common crimes.
  • Despite the size of the national armed forces, they are insufficient to secure the government's presence in every corner of the country's vast territory.
Opportunities
  • A strong bilateral relationship with the US results in cooperation, including financial aid, intelligence sharing, military training, policing and cybersecurity.
  • Colombia has made strong efforts to reduce corruption and increase transparency in defence contracting.
  • A more peaceful environment is likely now that the government has agreed on a peace deal with the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC).
Threats
  • Coca cultivation is on the rise, creating an ideal environment for the proliferation of smaller drug cartels now that the FARC has disbanded.
  • Splinter groups are emerging from the disbanding of FARC, seeing a return to violence and the strengthening of the narcotics trade.
  • Smaller splinter groups are likely to bring about new challenges for security authorities and escalate uncertainty for businesses.

Conflict Risk Analysis

  • 26 Nov 2020
  • Colombia
  • Crime and Security Risk
After more than half a century of civil war and the prevalence of drug trafficking networks, Colombia has made huge strides in improving its security situation in recent years. While this marked a positive step for the country's security environment, gains are being realised at a slow pace. Colombia remains beset by guerrilla rebels and criminal networks from demobilised rebel organisations involved in a wide range of violent activities, such as kidnappings and bombings of critical infrastructure, which pose a significant threat to business operations in the country. These groups seek to fill the gap, including controlling the network of drug trafficking left behind by the FARC, posing a serious danger to land-based transport networks. Armed groups including the ELN, are using the Covid-19 pandemic to expand their control in the country, which adds additional risks to the pandemic beyond economic and health dangers. In addition, volatile diplomatic relations with Venezuela can cause disruptions to business operations, particularly when it comes to border regulations and migration. Nevertheless, the risk of interstate conflict is lowered by the fact that Colombia is a major US ally in the region, which strengthens its security forces against external aggressors.

Key View: After more than half a century of civil war and the prevalence of drug trafficking networks, Colombia has made huge strides in improving its security situation in recent years. While this marked a positive step for the country's security environment, gains are being realised at a slow pace. Colombia remains beset by guerrilla rebels and criminal networks from demobilised rebel organisations involved in a wide range of violent activities, such as kidnappings and bombings of critical infrastructure, which pose a significant threat to business operations in the country. These groups seek to fill the gap, including controlling the network of drug trafficking left behind by the FARC, posing a serious danger to land-based transport networks. Armed groups including the ELN, are using the Covid-19 pandemic to expand their control in the country, which adds additional risks to the pandemic beyond economic and health dangers. In addition, volatile diplomatic relations with Venezuela can cause disruptions to business operations, particularly when it comes to border regulations and migration. Nevertheless, the risk of interstate conflict is lowered by the fact that Colombia is a major US ally in the region, which strengthens its security forces against external aggressors. Overall, Colombia receives a score of 32.8 out of 100 for Conflict Risk, ranking it 19th out of 20 states in Central and South America, only above Venezuela.

Narcoterrorism And Tension With Venezuela Contribute To Insecurity

Central & South America - Conflict Risk

Note: 100 = Lowest risk; 0 = highest risk. Fitch Solutions Crime and Security Risk Index

Latest Conflict Risk Analysis

  • Security issues and drug eradication will be major priorities for the Duque government in Colombia over 2020. Both left- and right-wing groups have criticised Duque for failing to improve security since he took office in August 2018. Leftist political leaders, human rights groups and the Fuerza Alternativa Revolucionaria del Común, the newly formed political party founded by demobilised members of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) insurgent group, have urged Duque to bolster security in rural areas and provide government protection for demobilised FARC members and left-wing activists. Furthermore, centrist parties voted to override Duque’s veto of statutory legislation overseeing the Special Jurisdiction for Peace, a tribunal for former guerrillas to confess their crimes in exchange for lighter sentencing.
  • Despite the expectation of continued strong anti-drug operations in Colombia over the long term, we believe the problem is unlikely to disappear over the coming years. This view is underpinned by the fact that cracking down on drug production in Colombia often displaces the shadow economy industry into countries such as Venezuela, Peru and Ecuador. This is likely to remain a potential source of tension between the Andean countries.

Terrorism And Political Violence

Colombia's medium- to long-term attractiveness as an investment destination will be boosted by easing security risks following the signing of a peace agreement in 2016 between the government and the FARC, the largest guerrilla movement in the country. Nevertheless, highly coordinated and well-financed leftist groups in the country have sustained long-running insurgencies and carried out consistently high impact terrorist attacks over many decades. Although some of these groups have now largely been demobilised, many of their former members have since joined violent criminal organisations, perpetrating other crimes, such as kidnapping, extortion, damage to property and causing power outages. Colombia has one of the highest levels of wealth inequality globally, with a small elite owning the vast majority of the land. This continues to threaten social stability, which is likely to become more pronounced if high unemployment persists. These risks are reflected in a very low score of 17.8 out of 100 for Terrorism and Political Violence Risk, placing Colombia 19th out of 20 Central and South American states, only ahead of Venezuela.

High Risks, Even On A Regional Scale

Central & South America - Terrorism & Political Violence Risk

Note: 100 = Lowest risk; 0 = highest risk. Source: Fitch Solutions Crime & Security Risk Index

Terrorist Threat

There is still a high risk of terrorist activity in Colombia, particularly from the National Liberation Army (ELN), rebels from the demobilising FARC guerrilla organisation, as well as other illegal armed groups. In August 2016, FARC and the Colombian government agreed on a bilateral peace deal, which, if it holds, will bring an end to one of the world's longest running militia insurgents that has left thousands of people dead and at least 7mn displaced. Nevertheless, Colombia's President Duque, who took office on August 8 2018 had, during the campaign trail, promised to revisit the peace deal. In June 2020, the Government and FARC resumed the peace agreement’s implementation dialogue, almost a month after bilateral negotiations ceased. However, the negotiations remain fragile and could once again fall flat on short notice.

This is believed to be among the key factors that helped him beat his rival Gustavo Petro, a former militant himself who has defended the peace agreement. Revisiting the peace accord, however, risks reigniting the decades-long insurgency and will pose serious threats to critical infrastructures, such as gas, oil and electricity supply lines, in addition to endangering the lives of foreign employees in Colombia. Furthermore, other armed groups still exist, which are carrying out attacks on public transport and industrial infrastructures, such as oil and energy facilities, government buildings and other state bodies. While foreigners are not usually targeted, businesses and their employees, however, need to be vigilant in public spaces as they can be entangled in the violence. Furthermore, rights groups in the country have warned that armed groups including the ELN are using the Covid-19 pandemic to expand their control, threatening those who break the curfew with punishments and even death.

Colombia - Main Active Terrorist Groups
Terrorist/Insurgent GroupTargetsRegion/Sector ExposureThreat Level
Splinter groups of the FARCGovernment figures, strategic buildings, armed forces, critical infrastructure (oil, gas and electricity supply lines).Largely active in rural regions in the south and east of the country. Businesses in the extractive industries most exposed.
  • Moderate: While the main FARC group has lost personnel to military campaigns and is demobilising following the signing of a peace accord with the government in August 2016, the peace agreement is still in a fragile state by virtue of some government officials' opposition to key components of the deal.
  • The bilateral conversations ceased on May 14 2020, after High Commissioner for Peace in Colombia Miguel Ceballos commended Cuba’s inclusion in terrorism friendly nations’ list.
  • Since the signing of the Peace Agreement on September 26 2016, at least 220 social leaders and former guerrilla fighters have been assassinated in Colombia, which is a major reason why the negotiations continue to fall through.
  • There is a possibility of reigniting the conflict should Colombia's President Iván Duque Márquez move ahead with his campaign promise to amend some of the provisions entailed in the peace agreement.
  • Splinter groups have formed that are capable of causing disruption.
National Liberation Army (ELN)Government figures, strategic buildings, armed forces, critical infrastructure.Based in the north east, Pacific coast and the border with Venezuela. Extractive industries most vulnerable to attacks.
  • Moderate: The capabilities of the ELN have also been degraded, with a temporary ceasefire agreement reached with the government.
  • However, if peace negotiations do not go as planned, the group is likely to continue to launch low-scale attacks.
  • In March 2020, the ELN announced a one-month nationwide cease-fire as a “humanitarian gesture to the Colombian people”. This was due to the Covid-19 pandemic. However, at the same time, ELN fighters in Bolívar, northern Colombia, released a pamphlet saying they felt “forced to kill people in order to preserve lives.”
United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC)Government figures, armed forces, critical infrastructure, civilians.Remnants of the group active throughout the country - may target any business.
  • Low: The AUC was disbanded in 2003, but its successor organisations remain active in a number of areas.
Source: Fitch Solutions

Counterterrorism Capability

Colombia's security forces have been struggling to eradicate insurgent groups and paramilitary organisations for the past 50 years, with the ELN (even though it has agreed upon a temporary ceasefire with the government), other smaller armed groups and criminal gangs, and FARC splinter groups still able to operate with relative impunity in some regions and areas of cities, where the presence of the state is lacking. The main intelligence unit, the National Intelligence Agency, which was formed in October 2011, is still attempting to deal with the controversial legacy of its predecessor, the Administrative Department of Security. The new agency has a more narrowly defined role in intelligence gathering, due to concerns that the previous unit was overwhelmed by its wide remit, which required it to cover intelligence gathering, evidence collection, and security for government officials and immigration control. This led to it being overstretched and lacking sufficient oversight, in turn, creating rent-seeking opportunities for staff, which undermined its capacity and credibility. The security forces that carry out counterterrorism operations have, however, benefitted from many years of experience in such campaigns and have also been supported by a strong budget and assistance from international donors, primarily the US. The Colombian armed forces have developed an international reputation for expertise on the ground and a strong track record of military successes, which have resulted in the death, capture or demobilisation of thousands of previously active rebel fighters. This is aided by the centralisation of security policy and coordination of forces under the Ministry of National Defense, which has responsibility for the National Police of Colombia as well as the armed forces.

Counterterrorism efforts are supported by a considerable defence budget and a sustained government commitment to ending insurgency and guaranteeing security. Colombia's defence budget is relatively modest when compared globally, but it is nevertheless among the largest in Latin America. Colombia's defence budget fell sharply over 2014-2015, reflecting the financial difficulties associated with the slump in oil prices. Since 2016, defence spending has started to recover in US dollar terms, owing to higher government revenues and the stabilisation of the peso. In 2018, Colombia's defence expenditure amounted to USD10.3bn. Through Plan Colombia, the US has provided billions of dollars in aid and equipment, as well as advice and training to the Colombian armed forces, considerably improving their capacity to conduct counter-insurgency operations.

Legislation governing terrorist activities is based on the country's existing criminal code, and prosecutions are often achieved using laws against drug trafficking and organised crime. Special prosecutors are employed within the Counterterrorism Unit of the Attorney General's Office and have developed the ability to successfully investigate and prosecute terrorist activity. In addition, the government has employed more subtle techniques of counter-radicalisation in order to end the insurgency. Demobilisation and reintegration programmes are widely employed, involving the provision of medical care, counselling, education opportunities and job seeking assistance to former rebels in order to facilitate their transition to peaceful lives. The armed forces also encourage desertion from insurgent groups through advertising in the media and organising events to discourage vulnerable youths from joining armed groups.

Political Violence Risk

Colombia has a relatively strong and independent constitutional system, which helps to enforce a strict separation of powers between the judiciary and the executive branches of the government. Apart from a decades-long rebellion from the leftist Marxist FARC militant group, Colombia has maintained political stability with peaceful power transfers over the recent past. That said, the country has become more divided politically over the 2016 peace deal signed between the government and the demobilising FARC group. The FARC has waged a prolonged armed rebellion for over 50 years, leaving thousands of people dead and millions displaced. The 2016 peace accord, which seeks to end this conflict, has, however, outraged and divided many Colombians over some concessions given to the members of the rebel group, including lenient sentences to those who self-confess, and guaranteed seats in parliament. In addition, high unemployment, a weak economy, corruption and inequality particularly over land ownership, are additional sources of discontent that continue to threaten social stability in the medium-to-long term. These will likely lead to mass and violent anti-government protests, causing property destruction and threatening the lives of foreigners working in Colombia.

Colombia - Political Violence Risk
Main CausesKey FlashpointsRisk Level And Impact On Business Environment
Governance risks and corruption

Revelations of bribery such as the Odebrecht scandal implicating the highest levels of the Colombian government amid poor service delivery, a weak economy and high unemployment, presents a serious threat to Colombia's political stability.

  • Moderate: Corruption is generally a regional problem in South America, which stifles the fighting of other crimes, such as drug and human trafficking across the region.
  • Allegations of corruption involving key figures in the government exacerbate weak service delivery and other crimes, thereby eroding public confidence in government.
  • Mass protests over corruption scandals have become a common occurrence not only in Colombia, but in other South American countries. These pose threats to business operations, such as blocking supply chains networks and destruction of business properties.
Legal and legislative challengesProvisions pertaining to the FARC peace agreement's complex justice framework and the plans to develop rural communities are facing legal and legislative challenges. The Constitutional Court will rule on the amnesty law that enables rank and files FARC members who are not accused of war crimes, to receive reduced punishment, as well as the transitional justice framework, which establishes a means through which the crimes and conduct of the conflict could be independently judged.
  • Moderate: Both provisions were highly sought after by FARC leadership and are pillars of the agreement. A court decision that would require the Congress to revisit the issues could significantly erode the FARC's faith in the government and cause the group to splinter and retreat from the demobilisation zones they currently occupy.
  • Substantial numbers of FARC members abandoning the process would be a major challenge to peace, likely preventing the government from integrating rural areas over the next several years.
  • The future of the peace agreement has become increasingly uncertain following the election of Iván Duque Márquez who had opposed some of the provisions of the peace deal during his campaign trail.

Covid-19 Response

Patchy and uncoordinated response to the health, social and economic crisis could see discontentment with the current administration rise. There is risk of strikes and protest action.
  • Moderate: As of mid-August 2020, hospitals in Colombia were struggling to cope with the influx of Covid-19 patients as confirmed cases crossed the 500,000 mark.
  • The overall confirmed number of coronavirus-related deaths stood at 7,600. A continued sharp rise in infections amid unclear guidance from the state and further job losses could raise risk of social unrest in the quarters ahead.
Source: Fitch Solutions

Interstate Conflict Risk

There are fewer risks to businesses in Colombia from the potential for interstate conflict in comparison with the internal violence in the country. Colombia's large and capable military and the probable material support of the US in the event of an armed conflict lend it an extra degree of security, while the government's measured response to previous crises has reduced the risk of conflict. Nevertheless, volatile diplomatic relations and lax border security arrangements with neighbouring states considerably complicate Colombia's security landscape. Poorly policed border regions with Ecuador and Venezuela have traditionally been a stronghold for Colombia's terrorist organisations and criminal groups that are able to take advantage of the abundant and lucrative trade in illicit goods and substances. The continuation of these illegal activities, as well as counterterrorism operations in these areas, have consequently led to significant tensions with neighbouring states, particularly when Colombian forces have strayed over the border. Overall, Colombia is ranked eighth in Central and South America for Interstate Conflict Risk, with a score of 47.7 out of 100.

Likelihood Of Interstate Conflict

An estimated 1mn Venezuelans are currently in Colombia as they flee Venezuela's political and economic crisis. Relations between the two countries have disintegrated in early 2019 as Venezuela broke diplomatic ties with its neighbour over aid skirmishes. In February 2019, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro expelled Colombian diplomatic staff from his country after Colombia assisted the Venezuelan opposition in bringing humanitarian aid into the country. Colombian President Duque has become one of the region's most vocal critics of the Maduro government, while Maduro has accused Colombia of aiding Venezuelan opposition forces and plotting his overthrow. The Colombian government estimates that providing services for the Venezuelan refugee population costs about USD1.5bn each year. With Maduro unlikely to leave office in the near term, Colombia will likely turn to multilateral organisations to assist its efforts.

Colombia - Major Interstate Conflict Flashpoints

Actors

Likely Cause Of ConflictForm Such A Conflict Would Take

Likelihood Of Conflict

Venezuela

Rapid increase in tensions over Venezuelan refugees entering Colombia.Border skirmishes potentially escalating to full-scale campaign.
  • Moderate: Relations between the two countries have disintegrated in early 2019 as Venezuela broke diplomatic ties with its neighbour over aid skirmishes.
  • In February 2019, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro expelled Colombian diplomatic staff from his country after Colombia assisted the Venezuelan opposition in bringing humanitarian aid into the country.
  • With Maduro unlikely to leave office in the near term, Colombia will likely turn to multilateral organisations to assist its efforts.
Peru and EcuadorCracking down on drug trafficking and related crime.Diplomatic tensions likely to rise, but armed conflict unlikely.
  • Low: Despite our expectation of continued strong anti-drug operations in Colombia, we believe that the problem is unlikely to disappear over the coming years.
  • This view is underpinned by the fact that cracking down on drug production in Colombia often displaces the black market industry into countries such as Venezuela, Peru and Ecuador.
  • This is likely to remain a potential source of tension between the Andean countries.
Source: Fitch Solutions

Dispute Management (Bilateral)

Colombia maintains a working, though unstable, relationship with Venezuela. Relations between the two countries have disintegrated in early 2019 as Venezuela broke diplomatic ties with its neighbour over aid skirmishes. In February 2019, Venezuelan President Maduro expelled Colombian diplomatic staff from his country after Colombia assisted the Venezuelan opposition in bringing humanitarian aid into the country. That said, Colombia enjoys cordial relationships with most other neighbouring states, major world powers and other large emerging economies, reducing the risk of an interstate conflict.

Colombia – Military Profile And Defence Agreements
AspectDescription
Military size
  • Strong: The Colombian armed forces are among the largest and most capable in Central and South America, benefitting from years of combat experience fighting the domestic insurgency.
  • They also have considerable equipment, financing and training assistance from the US.
  • Colombian armed forces number around 481,100 personnel as of 2016 (latest available data), which comprises army, navy and air force members.
  • Colombia's military is considerably larger than any of its neighbours' (Ecuador's is 40,750 strong), and its military expenditure is the highest in Central and South America, at approximately 3.1% of GDP (Ecuador's is 2.5%). This results in a quantitative and qualitative imbalance that favours Colombia and deters an external attack or an escalation of border disputes into armed conflict.
Weaponry
  • Strong: Colombia's armed forces benefit from the country's close security relationship with the US.
  • Washington has provided billions of dollars in funding for the Colombian military under Plan Colombia and has also helped to build the capacity of the armed forces by providing equipment, training and advice.
  • This has significantly improved the ability of the armed forces in tackling insurgent activity, contributing to the successes achieved in pushing back the FARC and the ELN since the early 2000s.
Defence agreements
  • Moderate: Colombia has a Defence Cooperation Agreement with the US, which was signed in 2009.
  • The bilateral agreement focuses on security cooperation, including narcotics production and trafficking, terrorism and illicit smuggling of all types.
  • Although the agreement does not give the US a base in Colombia, it does allow it access to specific facilities for mutually agreed activities, meaning that US combat forces can play a more direct supporting role in counterterrorism and narcotics operations.
  • Colombia is also a member of the Rio Treaty, which ostensibly guarantees US military support in the event of an external attack on any member, although it is considered obsolete by some and has never been invoked successfully.
Source: Fitch Solutions

Dispute Management (multilateral)

Colombia is a member of the Organisation of American States (OAS), the Andean Pact, the Agency for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean and the Rio Group, among other regional organisations. This ensures that there are several multilateral fora available to discuss and work through disputes with neighbouring states. However, it should be noted that Colombia failed in an attempt to organise an OAS meeting to discuss its border dispute with Venezuela in August 2015, highlighting that multilateral fora are not entirely successful in containing and diffusing tensions.

Global Defence Agreements
Note: The US is a member of the Rio Treaty and NATO; Kuwait and Bahrain are major non-NATO allies of the US. Template image: d-maps.com. Source: Fitch Solutions

Business Response

Businesses operating in more dangerous cities, such as Cali and Buenaventura, as well as remote locations in Colombia, should consider hiring 24-hour guards to protect their production sites and personnel. As well as businesses preparing for higher insurance premiums, foreign workers are likely to require significant bonuses or pay premiums in order to be attracted to work in Colombia, with the US Department of State offering premiums of 15% on basic salaries for danger pay, as well as up to 10% for hardship pay. This example may have to be emulated by the private sector, adding to the cost of operations.

Colombia - Business Response To Conflict Risk
Risk LevelBusiness Response
Moderate
  • Consider basing operations in safer locations, such as Bogotá and Bucaramanga.
  • In more dangerous cities, such as Cali and Buenaventura, and remote locations, consider hiring 24-hour guards to protect production sites and personnel.
  • Have contingency plans and backup generators in place in case of blackouts caused by attacks on power infrastructure.
  • Plan alternative supply chain routes in case of disruption to the transport network caused by terrorist attacks.
  • Divert supply chains around more dangerous cities and remote regions or provide security guards for cargo.
  • Prepare for higher insurance premiums.
Source: Fitch Solutions

Vulnerability To Crime Analysis

  • 26 Nov 2020
  • Colombia
  • Crime and Security Risk
For decades insurgent groups have propagated high crime rates, cultivating a high-risk environment for investors and businesses in Colombia. A transition from large ideologically driven groups to smaller profit-driven gangs has merged in recent years. This has led to an increase in street crime and burglary in urban areas, while the agricultural and extractive sector businesses that are based in rural areas are vulnerable to kidnapping and violent attacks, which raises security costs. Although the police force has the necessary equipment and manpower is well integrated with other security services, and has improved the response to criminal activity, its effectiveness is stifled from the constantly changing tactics of new criminal gangs and splinter groups. Furthermore, crime groups are also capitalising on the police and government's focus on the Covid-19 pandemic which leaves the police with limited resources to continue the fight against crime. Concerns about corruption also undermine confidence in the police force's effectiveness to enforce the law, investigate and prevent crime at all times.

Key View: For decades insurgent groups have propagated high crime rates, cultivating a high-risk environment for investors and businesses in Colombia. A transition from large ideologically driven groups to smaller profit-driven gangs has merged in recent years. This has led to an increase in street crime and burglary in urban areas, while the agricultural and extractive sector businesses that are based in rural areas are vulnerable to kidnapping and violent attacks, which raises security costs. Although the police force has the necessary equipment and manpower is well integrated with other security services, and has improved the response to criminal activity, its effectiveness is stifled from the constantly changing tactics of new criminal gangs and splinter groups. Furthermore, crime groups are also capitalising on the police and government's focus on the Covid-19 pandemic which leaves the police with limited resources to continue the fight against crime. Concerns about corruption also undermine confidence in the police force's effectiveness to enforce the law, investigate and prevent crime at all times. Consequently, Colombia receives a low score of 21.8 out of 100 for Vulnerability to Crime, ranking 13th out of 20 states in the Central and South America region.

Criminal Gangs Propagating High Crime Rates And Lawlessness

Central & South America - Vulnerability To Crime Risk

Note: 100 = Lowest risk; 0 = highest risk. Source: Fitch Solutions Crime & Security Risk Index

Latest Vulnerability To Crime Analysis

  • Criminal gangs and armed groups may take advantage of the Covid-19 pandemic to expand their operations and increase recruitment from the large pool of unemployed workers and low-income groups. With the attention of government and security forces focused on containing the spread of the virus, illicit groups can expand their activities and may emerge stronger from the crisis. The pandemic could also result in an increase in petty crime as deprivation forces people into criminal activity.
  • Venezuela'sTren de Aragua gang, which has become one of the most powerful and violent criminal groups in the country, has begun to expand into territories near the Colombian border. The expansion of the Tren de Aragua to new territories near Colombia, such as Táchira, poses a significant threat on both sides of the border. The gang has proven to be capable of recruiting large numbers of members and equipping them with military grade weaponry. Risks are growing for Colombia in this regard as well as for any personnel and businesses located near the Venezuelan border. Violent activity may increase, especially if the group spreads further into Colombia and begins to recruit Colombian members, potentially leading to splinter groups or allied factions within Colombia.
  • According to local media reports, eight young adults were killed by a group of armed men in Samaniego as they were having a conversation in a home on August 15 2020. Jhon Rojas, the governor of the Department of Nariño, where the town of Samaniego is located, told Semana Magazine that a wave of violence in the last two months has taken the lives of 20 people. Colombia's Defense Minister Carlos Holmes Trujillo announced that the military will be sent out to support local police forces, and authorities are offering a reward of COP200mn (USD53,000) for information leading to the arrest of the killers. This further elevates the risk that the local police are incapable of dealing with the violence which could see levels rise and businesses getting targeted for extortion.

Crime Trends

Illegal armed groups in Colombia, as well as splinter groups that have formed from paramilitary organisations, have propagated high crime rates in addition to terrorist-style attacks, contributing to a difficult environment in which to set up business operations. While some big organised crime syndicates have been demobilised, small-scale, but still violent criminal activities have become the key security concern for businesses, with almost all types of crime increasing significantly over the last five years. Expatriates may be targeted for theft and kidnapping, while both residential and business property is vulnerable to being burgled. Although mostly gang-related, there is a risk that foreign workers will be caught up in the violence, or injured when resisting robbery or abduction. It is important to note that while Colombia's crime rates mostly remain below other major Central and South American economies, such as Mexico, the general climate of insecurity contributes to the country's low score of 9.0 out of 100 for Violent and Petty Crime, ranking Colombia in 14th position out of 20 Central and South American states.

Petty Crime

Expatriates in Colombia are exposed to a wide range of criminal threats, some of which are general and opportunistic, and others specifically targeted. Foreign workers are often a preferred target for crime in Colombia due to a perception of wealth in comparison with the local population. This is evident in all types of crime, including petty theft, burglary and kidnapping. Common opportunistic crimes in Colombian cities include purse- and phone-snatching, violent and non-violent robbery, and credit/debit card scams. Moreover, 'express kidnappings', known locally as 'paseo millonario' continue to present safety concerns in some of the main cities. This involves victims being taken to ATMs under threat of violence and forced to empty their bank accounts. Crimes that involve the use of drugs to incapacitate and rob the victim are further dangers. The use of the drug scopolamine, which is lethal in large doses, is common in bars and nightclubs frequented by expatriates. In 2016, there were 5,210 reported cases of scopolamine use in crime countrywide.

Reported crimes in Colombia are increasing in most cases, as the illicit activities of smaller gangs have overtaken the more large-scale and terrorist-style attacks perpetrated by terrorist organisations. Petty thefts remain the most likely crimes to affect foreign workers, according to the latest available United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime data, with 180.5 reported incidents per 100,000 people in 2018, showing a decrease from 2014, when the theft rate stood at 180.5 per 100,000 people. More violent forms of criminal activity are also present, with the robbery rate being 244.4 per 100,000 people in 2018. The assault rate stood at 346.1 per 100,000 people in 2018. These statistics demonstrate a worrying trend of criminal activity in Colombia, which requires a change of approach in the security services in order to stem this rise.

Kidnapping is also a threat to foreigners, in particular those working in extractive industries and those who are based in remote areas. In addition to express kidnappings, more long-term abductions have been a favoured tactic of Colombia's insurgent groups, used to intimidate or incapacitate security forces and politicians, achieve the release of captured fighters, and raise funds through ransoms. The BACRIMs that have emerged in recent years have also adopted these tactics; however, the rate of kidnapping has marginally remained stable between 2013 and 2018 (latest available data), at 0.6 per 100,000 people. This can be attributed to the shrinking presence of the large rebel groups. That said, kidnappers frequently target wealthy expatriates who are perceived to be able to afford ransoms, and this threat is likely to be utilised more by the smaller criminal groups who are more interested in revenue-raising than political ambitions and will, therefore, be less likely to target government officials.

Colombia - Crime Rates
Form of Crime Colombia (rate per 100,000 people)Risk Level Relative To Regional PeersGlobal Average (rate per 100,000 people)
Homicides24.9High7.7
Assaults346.1Very high93.6
Kidnap0.6Low1.2
Thefts180.5Very low754.4
Robbery244.4Low110.2
Burglary93.5Very low263.0
Motor vehicle theft87.0Low77.3
Sexual violence48.7Low45.7
Source: UNODC, Fitch Solutions

Violent Crime

Colombia's crime rates remain moderate in comparison with regional peers, but its violent crime rates are much higher than the regional averages. The rate of recorded robberies is the fourth highest in the region, while the rate of assaults is the sixth highest regionally. That said, the homicide rate has been one of the few crimes to decrease in frequency in recent years, falling from 27.9 per 100,000 people in 2014 to 24.9 per 100,000 people in 2018 (latest available data). Furthermore, there are some regions that are far safer from this type of crime than others, with cities including Soledad, Ibague, Bucaramanga, and capital city Bogotá all boasting lower homicide rates than the national average. Homicides are also for the most part not targeted at foreigners, but between local criminals and insurgent groups, with 91% of victims being male and 51% in the 15-29 age group. The homicide rate is also far lower than neighbouring Venezuela, where it stood at 56.3 per 100 people in 2016. Nevertheless, some cities in Colombia, including Tumaco, Buenaventura, and Cucuta, all have higher homicide rates than the national average and should, therefore, be avoided by foreign businesses and expatriates, if possible.

Violent Crime One Of The Highest In Regionally

Central & South America - Homicide Rates, per 100,000 population

Source: UNODC, Fitch Solutions

Organised Crime

Criminal organisations have long boasted a strong presence in Colombia, operating the lucrative drug trafficking routes, which traverse the country and are used to supply the US market. The line between Colombia's insurgent groups and other narco-trafficking organisations has also become blurred to the point that there is little to differentiate between them in terms of methods and activities. However, as the left-wing rebel groups, such as the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), have scaled down their attacks in response to government offensives and the ongoing peace process, smaller criminal organisations based in cities, often referred to as BACRIMs, have expanded into the resulting vacuum. Many of these groups have splintered from paramilitary organisations, which sprung up to fight against insurgents, or have otherwise been boosted by membership of demobilised former fighters who have returned to a life of crime. There are a large number of such groups operating throughout the country, mainly based in major cities, with some of the largest and most active organisations, including the Urabenos, the remnants of the Popular Revolutionary Anti-Terrorist Army of Colombia (ERPAC) and Oficina de Envigado.

The BACRIMs have often co-opted the methods used by insurgent groups in order to raise funds and intimidate rivals, and though they operate on a smaller-scale, they are no less violent. Among the major concerns for businesses are the constant threat of extortion and kidnapping, which are likely to be targeted at foreign businesses and expatriates due to their perceived wealth. While kidnapping was formerly a threat for foreign workers in remote rural areas, it is now a wider concern, although more likely to take the form of express kidnapping rather than long-term abduction. Businesses may also be required to make payments towards 'protection money' which, in reality, is extorted under threat of violence. Firms will face little choice in this situation, as criminal gangs have been known to back up threats with the use of force, which may include damage to property, assault and homicide. This is a particular risk in the city of Buenaventura, where criminal gangs have spread a climate of fear through brutal attacks on individuals, including forced eviction, disappearances and torture.

There are further risks to businesses posed by criminal gangs due to unforeseeable costs incurred through their production and distribution of counterfeit goods and perpetuation of corrupt practices. Trade in counterfeit goods is one of the major means through which drug money is laundered in Colombia, as such items are readily available in bulk quantities. This means that brands and companies with trademarked products are at risk from being undercut by a proliferation of imitation goods. In addition, criminal groups that have arisen from demobilised paramilitary organisations have been accused of links with official figures and normalising the practice of corruption in government institutions and political parties. This carries the risk that businesses will be more likely to be solicited for bribes when interacting with government bodies, and may face an uneven playing field when competing for government contracts. Businesses should, therefore, be aware of these risks, even if there is little that can be done to mitigate them.

Colombia - Main Active Organised Criminal Groups

Name

Location And Scale Of PresenceActivities/Threats

Impact on Business

Los ZetasHave grown to become one of the largest, most technologically advanced and dangerous Mexican cartels. Main locations: extensive within Mexico, the Gulf of Mexico, several states in the US, Guatemala, Venezuela, Colombia, Italy and the coastal regions of Ecuador (used as a transit route).Drug trafficking, human trafficking, weapons trafficking, kidnapping.
  • Moderate: Companies operating on the eastern coast of Colombia should be aware of this group, and ports have also been utilised by them.

Sinaloa Cartel

Considered to be the most powerful drug trafficking organisation in the world and has traditionally controlled large-scale drug trafficking in Colombia. The group has extensive operations in Mexico, Latin America, the US, Asia, Europe and West Africa.Drug trafficking, money laundering, kidnapping, murder.
  • Moderate: Businesses operating in Colombia should be aware of the group, particularly their alliance with Colombian criminal organisations and their propensity to engage in money laundering.
  • Western coastal areas of the country are particularly vulnerable to the group's activities.

Gulf Cartel

One of the oldest organised crime groups of Mexican and Guatemalan origin. The group operates in Mexico and the US and has dealings with crime groups in Europe, West Africa, Asia and Latin America.Drug trafficking, money laundering, kidnapping, extortion.
  • Moderate: Known for intimidating the population and being particularly violent.
  • Businesses operating in Colombia's coastal areas need to have adequate security in place for employees.

Los Rastrojos

Colombian drug trafficking paramilitary organisation that has ties with the Mexican Sinaloa Cartel. Mainly operates in Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Central America and Mexico.Murder, drug trafficking, extortion, arms trafficking.
  • Low: Traditionally controlled large-scale drug trafficking in Colombia, but their ranks have been cut significantly in recent years, and their threat to businesses is diminishing.

Los Urabenos

Have grown to become one of the most powerful criminal organisations in Colombia and have ties with the Sinaloa and Los Zetas Mexican cartels. They operate in most regions, including Medellin and Bogotá.Drug trafficking, extortion, kidnapping, illegal mining.
  • High: Companies operating country-wide should be aware of this group and ports have also been utilised by them.

FARC splinter groups

The demobilisation of FARC has led to splinter factions and criminal groups forming, which are taking control of crop-growing territories abandoned by the main guerrilla group. They mostly operate in Colombia and the north-eastern regions of Ecuador.Drug trafficking, kidnapping, murder.
  • Moderate: Companies operating country-wide should be aware of these groups and ensure adequate security is in place for employees.

ERPAC

The group splintered when its leader surrendered in 2011, but large elements remain operational, mostly in the eastern regions of Colombia.Drug trafficking, fuel theft, extortion.
  • Low: Businesses operating in Eastern regions of the country need to be vigilant.

Oficina de Envigado

Successor to Pablo Escobar's cartel has now lost control over many major drug trafficking networks. Based in Medellin, but with a widespread regional presence.Drug trafficking and sales, extortion, kidnapping, money laundering.
  • Low: Businesses operating in Medellin need to be vigilant.
Tren de AraguaVenezuela's largest criminal gang is spreading to the Venezuelan border state of Tachira, bordering Colombia. As well as having a presence in Peru, fears are rising that they may spread to the north-eastern regions of Colombia. Drug trafficking, kidnappings, extortions, homicides, robberies, car thefts.
  • Low: The group has not yet expanded into Colombian territory, although risks are rising.
Source: Fitch Solutions

Capability Of The Police Force

The National Police of Colombia (CNP) is a well-trained and highly capable force with decades of experience in tackling the country's numerous criminal and insurgent threats. Though it remains a civilian unit, the police force is under the control of the Ministry of National Defense, which has aided the coordinating of counter-insurgency activities. Nevertheless, the CNP is struggling to adapt to the new threats posed by smaller, city-based criminal gangs, which require a different approach than that used against large, rural terrorist organisations. Despite being well staffed, the CNP is overstretched and unable to enforce and uphold the rule of law in all regions of the country. Law enforcement also lacks public trust due to ongoing concerns about corruption and abuse by the security services. For this reason, Colombia receives a below average score of 34.8 out of 100 for Capability of the Police Force, ranking it 10th out of 20 Central and South American states.

The level of security in Colombia for foreign workers and businesses has improved due to the presence of a large and capable police service. The CNP boasts personnel numbering some 160,000 as of 2015, representing 311.8 officers per 100,000 people, a higher police-population ratio than that of Ecuador, Mexico, Chile or Brazil. As such, the CNP is able to cover a larger area and a greater range of activities than its counterparts in other Central and South American states, offering a higher level of security. In addition, the capability of the police force in tackling the historical threats facing Colombia, from insurgencies to large drug trafficking gangs, has been improved due to its inclusion under the Ministry of National Defense along with the armed forces. This has enabled greater coordination between the security services in counter-insurgency operations, while allowing the police force to remain a separate civilian service. The CNP has relatively adapted to meet the specific security challenges present in Colombia; for example, it boasts a dedicated personnel recovery unit to react swiftly to kidnappings and ensure the timely release of abducted civilians. This is beneficial for investors as their foreign workers are more likely to be returned safely if kidnapped, although businesses in the highest risk areas may still wish to provide private security to protect staff at all times, therefore keeping security costs elevated. The CNP has also benefitted from the equipment, funding and expertise provided to the Colombian security forces by the US under Plan Colombia, which has helped to shape the armed forces and the police into among the most effective units in the world.

Nonetheless, there remain concerns over the efficacy and probity of the CNP, which leave businesses exposed to ongoing risks from criminal activity. Despite the large size of the force, Colombia's topography, including vast jungles and mountain ranges that are difficult to access and police, combined with the scale of insurgent and criminal activity, means that the CNP is unable to guarantee security in all regions of the country. Though the police presence is most limited in sparsely populated rural areas, there are increasingly large parts of cities where the CNP is unable to uphold the rule of law. One example of this is the port city of Buenaventura, where criminal gangs have taken over large areas of the city and commit violent crimes with little risk of capture and punishment. This issue is symptomatic of wider changes to Colombia's security landscape that are requiring the police to adapt from its traditional counter-insurgency role. While the larger insurgent groups have been subject to successful campaigns that have reduced their prominence, the disintegration of paramilitary organisations and rebel groups has led to the formation of smaller criminal gangs, known as BACRIMs, which are no less violent but are more difficult to locate and tackle. As they are often based in cities rather than the rural areas that were favoured by the FARC and the National Liberation Army, BACRIMs require a different approach from the traditional methods used by the security services. This has resulted in a security gap in some cities, which has been exploited by these gangs, as indicated by the country's rising crime rates in recent years. Consequently, despite its considerable abilities, the CNP remains unable to guarantee security in all areas of Colombia, resulting in additional security costs to all businesses located in the country.

Subdued Public Confidence In Police Force

Colombia - Respondents Who Viewed Institutions As Mostly Corrupt, % of total

Source: Transparency International, Fitch Solutions

Levels of corruption in the CNP have been reduced in recent years, providing a boost to police force capabilities. Although it remains a significant problem, with 41.3% of respondents to Transparency International's Global Corruption Barometer 2019 listing the police force as corrupt or extremely corrupt, this is a lower figure than in most Central and South American states covered by the survey, including Venezuela (73.4%), Peru (59.9%) and Mexico (62.6%). Corruption in other institutions, such as the legislature and political parties, is also considered to be more widespread than in the police force.

Business Response

Investors considering entering the Colombian market must be prepared to devote a large budget to the security measures, which will be required to ensure the safety of personnel and property. Businesses benefit from a large pool of private security professionals available in Colombia, with many having retired from the armed forces with considerable expertise in fighting insurgents and criminal groups. However, this experience means that they are also able to charge significant sums, increasing the costs for businesses operating in the country.

Colombia - Business Response To Crime Vulnerability Risk
Risk LevelBusiness Response
Very high
  • Install electronic surveillance systems and alarms.
  • Ensure that the property is protected by high fences.
  • Hire 24-hour security staff for business premises.
  • Place foreign workers in gated compounds or expatriate apartment blocks.
  • Ensure that expatriate homes are fitted with alarms connected to rapid response teams of private security firms.
  • Make contingency funds available in case of burglary, extortion or kidnapping of employees.
Source: Fitch Solutions

Business Crime Analysis

  • 26 Nov 2020
  • Colombia
  • Crime and Security Risk
Business crime risks remain moderate in Colombia owing to the government tightening financial regulation and elevating report standards to international norms. Colombia also boasts one of the highest corporate governance standards globally, adhering to high levels of corporate social responsibility. However, businesses still need to be aware that Colombia's financial system can be exploited by criminal gangs, where investors could face risks associated with organised crime and illegal activities, including the risk of incurring financial losses from fraud and money laundering.

Key View: Business crime risks remain moderate in Colombia owing to the government tightening financial regulation and elevating report standards to international norms. Colombia also boasts one of the highest corporate governance standards globally, adhering to high levels of corporate social responsibility. However, businesses still need to be aware that Colombia's financial system can be exploited by criminal gangs, where investors could face risks associated with organised crime and illegal activities, including the risk of incurring financial losses from fraud and money laundering. Overall, these factors leads to a high score of 68.7 out of 100 for Business Crime, ranking Colombia third out of 20 Central and South American states.

Money Laundering From Narco Traffickers Still Pose Risks

Central & South America - Business Crime Risk

Note: 100 = Lowest risk; 0 = highest risk. Source: Fitch Solutions Crime & Security Risk Index

Latest Business Crime Analysis

  • According to Colombia's national anti-money laundering body, the Financial Investigations and Analysis Unit, record cocaine production in Colombia is causing criminal groups to increasingly diversify their traditional money laundering techniques involving real estate and large public works contracts, as well as new laundering methods involving cryptocurrencies and non-profit organisations. This shift in money laundering is mostly linked to the departure of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo, which is leading to the creation of more localised criminal groups which are profiteering from large amounts of cocaine production. These smaller criminal gangs have started to invest in properties in smaller municipalities in areas that are strategic to the cocaine trade, such as Nariño and Cauca. As Colombia's criminal landscape changes, traffickers are adapting their money laundering strategies to best suit the current dynamics of the cocaine trade.
  • More Colombians than ever before have access to internet-enabled services, but many users are still not well versed in using them safely. This keeps firms and users exposed to internet fraud, such as phishing, and other types of user-related weaknesses are exploitable by criminal elements, both locally and abroad. The use of malware in lieu of phishing and confidence scams are growing, with the sophistication of attacks remaining relatively simple given the perception of low-education among internet users. Businesses are strongly advised to invest in security measures and to educate both customers and employees on potential threats. Such measures are likely to curb the efficacy of cyberattacks, at least until users become better educated.

Financial And Cybercrime

Compared with the significant threat from other forms of criminal activity in Colombia, businesses do not face a high risk from financial and cybercrime. Private companies are also offered some protection from money laundering activities and cyberattacks due to increasing government efforts to improve financial regulations and cybersecurity. Nevertheless, the activities of criminal gangs mean that money laundering occurs on a relatively large scale and through a variety of legitimate channels, including financial institutions, casinos, and prepaid cash cards, as well as trade-based money laundering. This means that businesses are at risk from processing transactions of funds derived by illicit activities and, consequently, fined if this is not properly reported. In addition, cybercrime is a growing concern as internet penetration increases, forcing businesses to take further action to protect their networks. Overall, however, these are secondary concerns to other forms of criminal activity, and Colombia therefore scores a high 55.0 out of 100 for Financial and Cybercrime Risk, ranking it 10th out of 20 Central and South American states.

Financial Crime Risk

While Colombia is not a major regional financial hub, its formal financial industry is frequently exploited by criminal gangs in order to launder funds gained from a wide range of illegal activities. The primary source of revenue for criminal gangs is drug trafficking, but they also derive funds from illegal mining, the production and sale of counterfeit goods, illegal gambling rackets, smuggling of petroleum and alcohol, extortion and kidnapping. The profits gained from these activities are then laundered through the banks and other financial institutions, or processed through money brokers in the informal financial industry. The Colombian government estimated that money laundered by criminal gangs and insurgent groups is equal to USD10bn a year, with these funds often invested back into legitimate ventures. The main risk to businesses stems from the potential to unwittingly process funds derived from illicit activities, hence, if discovered by authorities, resulting in considerable fines and reputational damage.

While Colombia has fairly strict anti-money laundering (AML) regulations, the US Department of State still classifies it as a primary concern to money laundering and financial crimes. Financial institutions and other businesses, such as mining companies, are particularly exposed to money laundering activities as funds from illicit drug trafficking and illegal mining find their ways into the formal economy. In addition, the presence of domestic terrorist and organised crime groups means that businesses need to tighten their internal controls in order to avoid being entangled in funds used to finance terrorist activities, which bring serious reputational and regulatory risks.

The potential for businesses to fall victim to financial crime risks is moderate, nevertheless, due to sustained attempts by the government to enhance the AML regime and close gaps in financial regulations. However, the potential negative impact of being entangled in these activities can be very damaging. The Colombian Congress introduced the Asset Forfeiture Law 1849 of 2017, which seeks to close gaps in its asset forfeiture regime. The law modifies the Statute of Asset Forfeiture most notably changing and expediting the procedures for disposition of laundered assets in addition to allocating more resources towards fighting organised crime, drug trafficking and corruption. Firms are required to submit suspicious transaction reports (STRs), including banks, securities brokers, pension funds, gambling companies, importers and exporters, and car dealerships, but compliance remains poor. This is indicated by the relatively low number of STRs filed to the authorities between January and November 2015, which stood at just 7,642 (latest available data) compared with 113,550 submitted in Mexico between January and October 2015. This suggests that companies are failing to adequately investigate suspicious transactions and protect themselves from the risk of processing illegally obtained funds. The government must, therefore, ensure that companies are adhering to the requirements of financial regulations.

For its part, the Colombian government is attempting to tighten regulation of the financial industry and bring reporting standards in line with international norms. For instance, since January 1 2015, all listed and other larger companies, such as subsidiaries of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS)-compliant firms, export-import companies, and government-owned or controlled companies, have been required to fully implement the IFRS. Adhering to IFRS is also a public listing requirement by all foreign companies. This will help to close loopholes in financial regulations and make it easier for the government to investigate abnormalities in auditing. The government has also introduced a Unit for Information and Financial Analysis, which is responsible for investigating possible financial crimes and seized more than USD800mn in assets derived from illicit activities. While the availability of police officers, prosecutors, and judges with the correct knowledge and training in financial crimes remains somewhat lacking; nonetheless, there were 29 successful convictions for money laundering between January and October 2015, more than in Mexico throughout the second half of 2014 and the first half of 2015. This is indicative of the Colombian government's efforts to enforce the AML regime, which has seen some success.

Cybercrime Risk

Due to the more immediate risks posed by other forms of crime, cybercrime is not a primary concern for businesses in Colombia. As with other areas of security, Colombia benefits from its close relationship with the US, which provides the country's personnel with training, technology and knowledge to combat cybercrime. Furthermore, Colombia has agreements to share information and strengthen cooperation in combating organised crime with several countries, including South Korea. In 2009, the government created an inter-agency group named colCERT (Colombia's Emergency Response Cyber Team) in charge of coordinating the response to potential cyberattacks to the country's critical infrastructure. In addition, the government launched its first cybersecurity and cyberdefence strategy in 2011 in order to protect national information systems, prevent computer crime and deal with emergencies from cyberattacks. This involved the creation of forces to safeguard government networks as well as to alert the private sector to attacks and investigate cybercrime, thus providing some protection to businesses.

Nevertheless, there remain some gaps to be addressed in Colombia's cybersecurity strategy. The number of secure internet servers available stands at 653.8 per 1mn people as of 2017, which is moderate in comparison with other Central and South American countries, but remains below Chile, Brazil and Argentina. This means that there is a lack of protection for online transactions, as secure servers offer encryption technology, which creates obstacles for cybercriminals attempting to steal data or money. Moreover, in 2014, Colombia's Chamber of Communications issued a report recommending a more centralised approach to cybersecurity coordinated by one national agency, as well as the implementation of dedicated cybercrime prosecution teams in the justice system, and greater international cooperation on cybercrime prevention.

Businesses in Colombia remain at some risk of cyberattacks. According to Verizon's Data Breach Investigation Report for 2014, Colombia was the fifth most common victim of cyberespionage, after the US, South Korea, Japan and Russia. The most common instances of cybercrime in Colombia are credit card fraud and identity theft. In addition, criminals often target ATM machines and point-of-sale controllers and terminals for the purposes of acquiring card and other banking information, which are then used to make fraudulent transactions. Colombia is also the worst-affected country in Central and South America for phishing scams, whereby criminals steal personal data to take money from bank accounts, estimated to have caused losses of up to USD95mn in 2013. Consequently, although businesses may be more concerned with mitigating the more traditional threats posed by criminal gangs, they should not neglect cybersecurity.

Cyberprotection Moderate In Comparison With Regional Peers

Central & South America - Secure Internet Servers, per mn people

Source: World Bank, Fitch Solutions

Cybersecurity Regulations And Data Localisation

While Colombia boasts some of the strongest cybersecurity regulation in the Latin America region, it still has a long way to go in localising its data centres. The country's initial data protection legislation was drafted by including some key elements from the EU Data Protection Directive, but has since been replaced by the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). The GDPR is regarded as the toughest privacy and security law in the world. While the GDPR was drafted by the EU, it imposes obligations onto organisations anywhere, so long as they target or collect data related to people in the EU. Colombia's data protection regulations distinguish between personal data and a sub-category of sensitive personal data, depending on the information and the harmful effects caused by its unlawful use. Law 1266 and Law 1581 contain particular rules related to sensitive personal data. Statutory Law 1266 of 2008 (Law 1266) regulates the processing of financial data, credit records and commercial information collected in Colombia or abroad. While Law 1581 defines special categories of personal data, including sensitive data and data collected from minors.

The Colombian Data Protection Authority, namely the Superintendence of Industry and Commerce (SIC) has the power to investigate ex officio and based on complaints, alleged violations of data privacy and data protection rights of Colombian data subjects and of data subjects domiciled in Colombia. The SIC is the most important data protection authority for the enforcement of Law 1266/2008, a statutory law that regulates Article 15 of the Constitution with regard to the data privacy rights of individuals and legal entities. Also, Law 1581/2012, Colombia’s most comprehensive statutory general data protection law, which governs all processing of personal data of individuals. The SIC must issue instructions and orders under the law concerning the administration of financial, credit and commercial services (including those originating in third countries) and establish the criteria that enable compliance therewith and the procedures for their application. It also has the duty to ensure that data processing operators and sources have a security system and any other technical capabilities needed to protect and update records and avoid their adulteration, loss, consultation or unauthorised use. The Colombian Criminal Code establishes that acts or omissions that violate personal data protection rights, (including unauthorised collection, compilation, subtraction, offer, sale, exchange, interception, disclosure or modification of personal data), for ones benefit or that of a third party, will be subject to sanctions of imprisonment for a term between 48 to 96 months, and a fine of up to 1,000 minimum legal monthly salaries (approximately USD272,900).

Data localisation laws in Colombia are quite limited. Colombia places restrictions that apply to international data transfers. However, these restrictions act only in certain conditions. According to Law 1581,8 international data transfers of personal data to countries that do not provide an adequate level of protection for personal data is prohibited, unless express consent is given, the processing is done with the purpose of preserving the data subject's medical data. Also, international data transfers are permitted if they are banking or stock exchange transfers, they are transfers agreed in international treaties, they are transfers for pre-contractual or contractual performance (as long as the data subject has consented) and if the data transfer is legally required in order to safeguard public interest or for the acknowledgement or defence in a judicial process.

Corporate Governance

Colombia's corporate governance profile outperforms that of its regional peers and is one of the best globally. The country adheres to the corporate social responsibility principles outlined in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises, and the Colombian government encourages public and private enterprises to follow these guidelines, with Colombian corporates being recognised on an international level for their corporate social responsibility initiatives. The country also has adequate environmental laws, is proactive in enacting environmental protections, and does not waive labour or environmental regulations to attract investors. Overall, Colombia therefore scores a high 82.3 for Corporate Governance, ranking first in the wider Latin America region.

Corporate Governance Profile Outperformer Globally

Central & South America – Corporate Governance Risks

Note: 100 = Lowest risk; 0 = highest risk. Source: Fitch Solutions Crime and Security Risk Index

Institutional And Regulatory Framework

Colombia's banking sector is regulated by the Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia, which oversees both the country's lenders and financial markets. A 2016 OECD report suggests that the president's ability to directly appoint and dismiss agency heads impinges on the body's independence, so efforts are underway to reform the relationship with the executive, and thus far the agency has a track record of objective enforcement of financial regulations. This is reinforced by the Colombian government's commitment to maintaining a robust business environment to draw investment, especially at a time of weaker investment into the hydrocarbons sector.

In terms of the mining sector, Colombian court decisions to protect the environment will raise costs for miners and create uncertainty in Colombia's legal environment, thus deterring investment. Over the past few years, Constitutional Court decisions such as banning extractive activities in the Paramos regions (high altitude ecosystems) and overturning the federal government's sole authority to approve mining projects, has decentralised the regulatory process and elevated uncertainty in the mining industry. In March 2018, the Constitutional Court ruled against South32's Cerro Matoso mine, finding the nickel mine responsible for health issues in the local community leading to various repercussions. South32 later won its appeal in September 2018, no longer needing to indemnify the local community, but still needed to reapply for its environmental license. Previously, in 2017, South African gold miner AngloGold Ashanti suspended work at the La Colosa project following a vote to ban mining in the Tolima municipality. In that same year, the Constitutional Court blocked a mine expansion at the Cerrejon coal mine, owned by BHP, Glencore, and Anglo American. Following the páramos ruling in 2016, Canadian firms Cosigo Resources and Eco Oro Minerals lost rights to explore and exploit respective project areas.

Strength Of Implementation

The Implementation of Colombia's corporate governance framework in its state-owned entities (SOE's) is overall in line and compliant with the countries corporate governance guidelines as laid out above. In some cases, the Colombian implementation practices could be regarded as strong and have been internationally recognised for their effectiveness,for example in matters relating to equal treatment of shareholders or stakeholders’ engagement. The Colombian state has demonstrated its commitment to facilitating minority shareholders’ and interest groups’ rights. Different line ministries have made sincere efforts to improve the functioning of the SOEs under their responsibility. However, many of these positive developments have occurred on a case-by-case basis within, or under the control of, individual ministries, whereas the biggest challenges remain at the overall, structural level. This means that the process is quite slow and does not apply to all of the government's SOEs.

The Colombian government has devoted substantial resources to get listed companies to align its corporate governance framework with those policies set out by the government in order to promote transparency and market efficiency. On the surface, the country seems to have established effective coordination mechanisms and has been largely successful in driving the implementation of its corporate governance framework. However, the country faces a growing risk from the dropping number of listed companies and the concentration of listed share ownerships by large companies. The regulatory authority has thus dedicated significant resources in tracking ownership structures in listed companies and related party transactions in order to ensure clarity and full disclosure of potential conflict of interest. In February 2016, the World Bank Group launched a corporate governance advisory project for Colombia with the financial support of Switzerland, through its State Secretariat for Economic Affairs to help firms improve their performance, access to finance, and overall sustainability. The project set out to promote better governance practices to contribute to the sustainability of key corporate governance institutions and to strengthen regulations on corporate governance in the country. In addition to this advisory project, international Finance Corporation, the private sector arm of the World Bank Group, promoted good corporate governance at the company level by assisting its investment clients and at the country level, through other advisory projects supporting a better investment climate, and by promoting good practice standards and guidelines.

Business Response

Businesses would need to hire financial crime teams to conduct extensive due diligence and investigate suspicious transactions, as well as closely follow government regulations issued on financial crime. All necessary protections against cybercrime need to be taken, including using the latest security software. Companies also need to ensure their employees are trained in basic cybersecurity measures.

Colombia - Business Response To Financial And Cybercrime Risk
Risk LevelBusiness Response To Risk
High
  • Hire financial crime teams to conduct extensive due diligence and investigate suspicious transactions.
  • Closely follow government regulations issued on financial crime.
  • Take all necessary protections against cybercrime, including using the latest security software.
  • Ensure that employees are trained in basic cybersecurity measures.
Source: Fitch Solutions

Crime And Security Risk Index Methodology

Our Operational Risk Index quantitatively compares the challenges of operating in 201 countries worldwide. The index scores each country on a scale of 0-100, with 100 being the lowest risk. The entire index consists of 24 sub-index scores and 84 individual surveys and datasets, which all contribute to the headline score. A full methodology can be found at the end of the report.

Each country has a headline Crime and Security Risk Index score, which is made up of three categories, each further broken down into sub-categories. The individual categories and sub-categories are also scored out of 100, with 100 the lowest risk.

The Crime and Security Risk Index score is the average of the Conflict Risk, Vulnerability To Crime and Business Crime scores.

Conflict Risk: This indicator assesses the risk of interstate and internal conflict in a country. We examine possible triggers for military confrontation and the threat of terrorism and political violence, balanced against the strength of the military and counter-terrorism forces.

Vulnerability To Crime: This indicator assesses the risk of crimes to the person and to property, from both a violent and petty crime perspective. It also examines the capability and integrity of the police force.

Business Crime: Analyses 'white-collar' crimes that specifically target businesses rather than individuals, including organised crime, financial crime and cybercrime. It also analyses the corporate governance culture and highlights potential reputational risks to businesses from corruption and money laundering, and the level of due diligence required for higher-risk jurisdictions.

Weighting Of Indicators (%)
IndicatorWeighting
Conflict Risk33 of which
Terrorism and Political Violence Risk50
Interstate Conflict Risk50
Vulnerability To Crime33 of which
Violent and Petty Crime50
Capability of the Police Force50
Business Crime33 of which
Financial and Cyber Crime50
Corporate Governance50
Source: Fitch Solutions


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