Hurricanes and tropical storms forecast in the Atlantic by 2021


The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which will officially begin on June 1, will be the first to reflect the new average cyclone activity in this basin, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

In this way, the updated average of a hurricane season in the Atlantic, which has taken into account the 30-year period from 1991 to 2020, increased to 14 named storms and seven hurricanes.

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The previous average activity, based on records accumulated between 1981 and 2010, was 12 named storms and six hurricanes, NOAA said.

In the case of major hurricanes (3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale), an average of three cyclones are maintained, according to this federal agency that does this upgrade process once every decade.

NOAA stresses that the increase in the average can be due both to the overall improvement in observation platforms, including the fleet of environmental satellites used by this agency, and to "ocean and atmosphere warming, which are influenced by climate change".

"NOAA scientists have assessed the impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and determined that it can influence the intensity of storms," although more research is needed, Matt Rosencrans of the Dependency Climate Prediction Center noted in a statement.

The federal agency noted that the update "reflects a very active period over the past 30 years" and with extremely active seasons.

Maria Torres, meteorologist at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), set an example last year's season, the most active in history after recording 30 named storms, 13 of them hurricanes and six of them of the highest category.

"A storm is enough to do a lot of damage, that's what happened last year," he told EFE Torres, who recalled the destruction caused by Hurricane Iota in Nicaragua.

The meteorologist highlighted the importance of preparing ahead of time for each hurricane season, as well as taking into account the deadly dangers of flooding caused by cyclone surge.

"Sometimes we lightly take the floods and see that many of the fatalities in recent years have been due to flooding, cyclonic storm surge, that is, seawater entering the inland," he said.

One of the factors that influenced the extreme activity of last year's season was the La Niña phenomenon, which could reappear around the winter of this year, Torres said.

The meteorologist explained that the Atlantic basin is currently under the effects of the El Niño phenomenon, but that it could give way to La Niña between October and November.

Although NOAA will make its first formal forecast for the upcoming hurricane season in the second half of May yesterday, Colorado State University (CSU) said that this 2021 there will be "above the annual average" activity and will have 17 named tropical storms.

The CSU's annual forecast also reflects eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes, i.e. with sustained winds of about 178 kilometers per hour.

The CSU forecast includes 80 days of storms and 35 days of hurricanes, just like in 2020.

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