The airline expects it will run at about half of its present capacity next year. Its restructuring plan will cost HK $2.2bn (US$284m). Cuts will affect cabin crew and pilots most — about a fifth of the latter will go. However, staff reductions at most amount to less than a quarter of the group workforce.

The airline is headed for an operating loss just shy of HK$15bn, according to S&P Global. That wipes out operating earnings for the previous five years, and then some.

Yet there is reason for the hesitation on staff cuts. The possibility of a resumption of flights between Hong Kong and 11 other countries, via a travel bubble, awaits. If passenger load factor picks up 10 percentage points from this year's 61 per cent, that would mean a quick pull on its worker pool.

Like most airlines Cathay has high operational leverage. Wages were nearly six times last year's operating profits. Cut those costs and add more passengers and earnings look a lot different. That does not mean its bloated balance sheet, with net debt many multiples of next year's hopeful ebitda, will suddenly shrink. But Cathay does trade at half its book value, cheaper than almost any carrier globally.

Investors have already pulled the ripcord. The bigger issue is not whether Cathay can regain earnings altitude but whether its long-suffering staff will bail out for good. That could make its reputation for service hard to maintain in the blue sky years that are surely ahead.

• S&P Global Inc